Learning,market selection and the evolution of industrial structures

Industrial economics is a rich source of puzzles for economic theory. One of them — certainly the most discussed — regards the co-existence of firms (and plants) of different sizes, displaying rather invariant skewed distributions. Other puzzles, however, concern the sectoral specificities in industrial structures, the persistence of asymmetric corporate performances and the dynamics of entry and exit. The paper reports some preliminary results on evolutionary modeling of the links between the microeconomics of innovation, the patterns of industrial change and some observable invariances in industrial structures.First, the paper reviews a few of these empirical regularities in structures and in the patterns of change. Second, the paper discusses the achievements and limits of interpretations of the evidence based on equilibrium theories. Finally, it presents a model where these regularities are explained as emergent properties deriving from non equilibrium interactions among technologically heterogeneous firms. Moreover, simulation exercises show that also the intersectoral variety in the observed industrial structures and dynamics can be interpreted on the grounds of underlying specificities in the processes of technological learning — which is called technological regimes — and of the processes of market interactions — i.e. market regimes.This research has undertaken within an on going project sponsored by the Italian Research Council (CNR, Progetto strategico,Cambiamento tecnologico e sviluppo economico). Support by the Consortium on Competitiveness and Cooperation Centre for Research in Management, University of California at Berkeley is also gratefully acknowledged.     

EMU Stability: Direct and Indirect Risk Sharing

Our paper aims to analyze the effectiveness of different risk-sharing mechanisms in providing stability to a monetary union. We select two stylized tools with extreme and opposite features. The first is an expansionary but conventional monetary policy that is used to help EMU’s most fragile member states manage their public debts; the second is a centralized fiscal policy that allows for the transfer of a portion of these public debts from EMU’s most fragile member states to those considered EMU’s “core”. By a stylized periphery-core model of a monetary union, we compare the strengths and weaknesses of these two tools in order to reach some welfare implications in terms of union stability.     

THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY SHOCKS IN SVAR MODELS: A GRAPHICAL MODELLING APPROACH

We apply graphical modelling (GM) theory to identify fiscal policy shocks in SVAR models of the US economy. Unlike other econometric approaches – which achieve identification by relying on potentially contentious a priori assumptions – GM is a data based tool. Our results are in line with Keynesian theoretical models, being also quantitatively similar to those obtained in the recent SVAR literature à la Blanchard and Perotti (2002) , and contrast with neoclassical real business cycle predictions. Stability checks confirm that our findings are not driven by sample selection.     

Firm Recruitment Behaviour: Sequential or Non‐sequential Search?

In the extensive job search literature, studies assume either sequential or non‐sequential search. This article introduces a novel method to test the hypothesis that firms search sequentially based on the relationship between the number of rejected job applicants and the number of filled vacancies. We distinguish between ten different search methods. For most search methods, including methods that rely on social networks and temporary help agencies, we find that sequential search cannot be rejected. However, when firms use advertising or public/private employment agencies, sequential search is rejected. Hence, we find that both forms of search are relevant for our understanding of the labour market. Further, the form of search is closely related to the search method used.     

The cost of railroad regulation: the disintegration of American agricultural markets in the interwar period

This article investigates the costs of transport regulation using the example of agricultural markets in the US. Using a large database of prices by state of agricultural commodities, we find that dispersion fell for many commodities until the First World War. We demonstrate that this reflected changes in transport costs which in turn in the long run depended on productivity growth in railroads. The year 1920 marked a change in this relationship, however, and between the First and Second World Wars we find considerable disintegration of agricultural markets, ultimately as a consequence of the 1920 Transportation Act. We argue that this benefited railroad companies in the 1920s and workers in the 1930s, and we put forward an estimate of the welfare losses for the consumers of railroad services (that is, agricultural producers and final consumers).     

Network Production,Efficiency And Technological Options: Toward A New Dynamic Theory Of Telecommunications ‡

In this work we propose a new model for the analysis of telecommunications (Tlc) networks production. This represents an extension of the fund-flow model by Georgescou-Roegen originally applied to the manufacture and agriculture sectors. The adopted framework enables us to describe the functioning of a Tlc network - and the technique underlying the different types of Tlc traffic - by means of a system of multi-production where the production time profile has been clearly defined. One of the most innovative elements of our analysis is the ability to analytically represent the qualitative features of technological options. It also signals new productive options connected to new Tlc services and the introduction of new network facilities. In this way we hope to both further a theoretical understanding of the technological dynamics of the Tlc sector, and provide guidance as to the strategic choices of the economic actors involved.     

International strategy and performance—Clustering strategic types of SMEs

This paper identifies different strategic types of internationalised SMEs, in so doing providing managers and entrepreneurs with a much better understanding of the main strategic options and their relationship with the international performance of firms. We provide a theoretical analysis of strategic orientations and strategic behaviour in international SMEs, followed by an empirical investigation based on a sample of Italian SMEs. The SMEs are grouped into strategic types using cluster analysis, and the link between strategic type and international performance is subsequently analysed using logistic regression. The empirical data suggest that there are four broad strategic types, namely an entrepreneurial/growth-oriented group of firms, a customer-oriented group, a product/inward-oriented cluster, and a further group of firms that lacks strategic orientation. The characteristics of the strategic clusters are discussed, and the regression results show that a clear and proactive strategic orientation and its consistency with business strategy leads to improved international performance. This confirms the positive and highly significant role of strategic types.     

Strategic Trade Policy Under Incomplete Information

This paper examines equilibrium trade policies when firms have better information than governments about the profitability of the industry. Contrary to the intuition that the policymakers' lack of information should reduce their incentives to engage in strategic trade intervention, the analysis suggests that information asymmetries may increase trade policy distortions in equilibrium and ultimately worsen the "prisoner's dilemma" between governments.